KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 31): Two in five Americans believe a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to expect a civil war, according to a poll by The Economist and YouGovAmerica.
In the results of the poll published on Aug 27, two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe that political division in the US has gotten worse since the beginning of 2021, compared with only 8% who say the country has grown less divided.
Few see things improving in the coming years, with 62% expect an increase in political division.
A similar share (63%) of the proportion who say political division has worsened (66%) think political violence has increased since the start of 2021.
Meanwhile, three in five Americans (60%) anticipate an increase in political violence in the next few years, and only 9% expect political violence to decline.
The survey said that compared to Democrats, Republicans are more likely to say political division has worsened lately and expect the political divide to widen.
Opinions on the frequency of political violence — now and in the future — have much smaller partisan gaps.
The poll said while only 14% of Americans say a civil war is very likely in the next decade, 43% say it is at least somewhat likely.
About one in three — 35% — say it is not very or at all likely, and 22% are unsure.
People who say they are "strong Republicans" are the political group most likely to anticipate a civil war — 21% say it's very likely, compared with less than 15% of each of the other four political groups studied.